基于中位秩的动态可靠性增长模型

给出了一种动态可靠性增长模型。首先利用统计中的中位秩法结合试验数据确定各个增长阶段的失效率 ,这一技术可以很好地解决小子样问题 ,并且由于利用了动态建模的思想 ,因而可以客观地反映系统的实际状态。其次 ,该模型继承了传统Duane模型简单、直观、易于进行参数估计的优点 ,同时又很好地处理了传统Duane模型所不适用的分阶段、多场景试验的情形 ,因而有很广阔的工程应用前景。最后通过仿真实例验证了该模型的正确性     

Growth recovery after civil conflict: a fractional integration approach

Using recent econometric techniques based on fractional integration, we find that developing countries recover their economic growth faster than developed countries in response to a shock. Following this methodology, we find that longer civil conflicts are associated with a faster recovery process. We further investigate this issue by exploring correlations with components of GDP, military spending, institutions and aid and find heterogeneous effects of these channels by duration of conflict. Higher government spending is correlated with faster recoveries post longer conflicts, and higher consumption spending is linked to faster recoveries following shorter conflicts. Military spending appears to be driving the government expenditure that makes countries recover from longer conflicts. More democratic institutions are associated with faster recoveries post short wars but slower recoveries following long wars.     

装备维修性增长及其基本过程研究

为了解决当前装备的维修性问题，揭示维修性发展的一般规律，进行了维修性增长的研究。首先阐明了装备维修性形成与演变的一般规律，继而提出了维修性增长的概念，重点研究了维修性增长的内涵与增长的一般过程，最后对解决增长问题所需的模型进行了分类，为增长技术的深入研究奠定了基础。     

层裂问题的数值研究

本文对Carrol、Holt 和Johnson提出的延性材料损伤断裂进行了改进。在模型中考虑了材料的硬化效应和空穴成核的影响。用数值方法模拟了高速碰撞中OFCH 铜和铝的层裂过程,其结果与实验吻合得相当好。     

二维随机裂纹介质模型

利用随机过程的谱展开理论及Hudson的裂纹介质模型构造一种裂纹数密度具有空间统计分布的随机介质模型的理论。利用Hudson理论的裂纹的微观参数(裂纹数密度)与裂纹介质的宏观性质(弹性常数)相联系的特点,模拟了二维指数型椭圆型随机介质。结果表明模型将裂纹的微观参数与裂纹介质的宏观性质直接联系起来,并且裂纹数密度对随机裂纹介质的各个弹性常数有不同程度的影响。     

1420cs铝锂合金型材力学特性测试

用电测的方法 ,得到了材料的应力与纵向应变曲线及横向应变与纵向应变曲线 ,判读出σ0 2 、σb、E、μ ,测试结果表明 :过比例伸长应力后 ,横向变形有明显跳动 ,这种特性有别于其他材料 ,使用中应予注意 ;测试了表面裂纹的断裂韧度。     

复合材料单面胶接修复含中心裂纹铝合金板的疲劳特性分析

利用ANSYS有限元分析软件,建立了复合材料单面胶接修复铝合金裂纹板的裂纹长度参数化的有限元模型,分析了修复结构的裂纹尖端应力强度因子及其变化幅值的规律;与试验测试结果相结合,得到了描述修复结构疲劳特性的Paris公式材料常数;碳纤维、玻璃纤维复合材料胶接修复铝合金裂纹板的材料常数C、m分别为6.76×10-10、2.27和7.89×10-10、2.33。     

McEvily公式的改进及其在疲劳扩展寿命评估中的应用

疲劳裂纹扩展寿命评估的关键是要有适宜的疲劳裂纹扩展公式。通过对McEvily公式的深入研究,综合考虑弹塑性行为的影响、裂纹的闭合效应,并对曲线斜率进行“最小二乘法”拟合,得到了改进的McEvily公式。采用某航天发射塔架A3钢的疲劳裂纹扩展数据进行分析验证,得出McEvily改进公式对疲劳裂纹扩展寿命具有更强的评估能力。     

Military Expenditure,Economic Growth and Heterogeneity

This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on economic growth on a large balanced panel, using an exogenous growth model and dynamic panel data methods for 106 countries over the period 1988–2010. A major focus of the paper is to consider the possibility group heterogeneity and non-linearity. Having estimated the model for all of the countries in the panel and finding that military burden has a negative effect on growth in the short and long run, the panel is broken down into various groupings based upon a range of potentially relevant factors, and the robustness of the results is evaluated. The factors considered are different levels of income, conflict experience, natural resources abundance, openness and aid. The estimates for the different groups are remarkably consistent with those for the whole panel, providing strong support for the argument that military spending has adverse effects on growth. There are, however, some intriguing results that suggest that for certain types of countries military spending has no significant effect on growth.     

Resource rents,institutions, and violent civil conflicts

Natural resources have been blamed for inducing slow growth and sparking civil conflicts and violence. This paper first develops a model to account for the hazard of armed civil conflicts as a manifestation of the natural resource curse, which is mediated by the quality of both economic and political institutions. We then use recently published data on institutional quality and natural resource rents to measure the potential impact of the resource curse on violent civil conflicts using a panel of data for over 100 countries in the period 1970–2010. Our model explicitly accounts for the role of good economic and political institutions in deterring the recourse to violence as well as the extent to which they might weaken the resource rents effect.